The S&P BSE Realty Index has emerged as one of the top-performing sectors, yielding a remarkable 45 per cent return over the past six months. The three leading players, listed by market capitalisation, have substantially enriched investor wealth by 43-70 per cent during this period. If the second quarter (Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24) updates from Macrotech Developers (Lodha) and Sobha, along with industry data for the quarter, serve as any indication, the trend of strong bookings for larger players is expected to continue.
A muted revenue performance in the September quarter and weak management commentary weighed on the stock of consumer major Marico which shed 8.5 per cent to Rs 542 from its intraday highs on Tuesday. The company indicated that demand trends were similar to that of the June quarter with instances of increasing food prices and below-normal rainfall distribution in some regions impeding the anticipated recovery in rural demand.
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While the four largest listed paint companies have seen marginal negative returns, the S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) and the National Stock Exchange Nifty FMCG indices have delivered a solid 16 per cent return during the same period. Initially, volume growth and reduced costs bolstered the sector's sentiment, but brokerages have grown cautious due to increased competitive pressures.
However, the second quarter of FY24 is expected to be muted, and, with that, the hope of double-digit growth is now being pushed to FY25. However, analysts are expecting the momentum in the closure of record total contract values (TCVs) will continue, as has been the case over the last two quarters.
Brokerages lowered their earnings estimates following muted results in Q1FY24. While analysts remain optimistic about the stock's medium-term prospects, they highlight near-term concerns stemming from lower realisations due to changes in the product mix and margin pressures resulting from new plane additions.
These stocks offer the best combination of maximum 'buy' recommendations from brokerages and share price upside over the next 12 months.
Tyre stocks have been on a tear over the past six months, with average returns exceeding 45 per cent. Except for Apollo Tyres, which has seen a slight correction in the last month and a half, limiting its gains to 16 per cent, listed peers such as MRF, CEAT Tyres (formerly Cavi Elettrici e Affini Torino), and JK Tyre & Industries have delivered returns exceeding 30 per cent during this period. Production-related constraints and sluggish demand in Europe, where sales are expected to remain flat, coupled with high valuations, have contributed to Apollo Tyres' underperformance. The tyre sector's gains can be attributed to robust growth trends driven by the replacement market, which constitutes more than two-thirds of sales.
Irregular rainfall and a pick-up in commodity costs are expected to weigh on the demand and margins of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. Most companies reported a sharp expansion in gross margins in the April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), given the lower prices of key raw materials and earlier price hikes. Furthermore, there were expectations that cost savings being passed on could reflect in volume growth going forward. However, these hopes could be dashed if demand recovery, especially in the rural segment, stalls, and gains on the raw material front start to recede.
Container Corporation of India (Concor) has been the worst performer among major logistics & port stocks registering returns of about 4 per cent over the past three months as compared to 10-12 per cent for peers Gateway Distriparks and Adani Ports and SEZ. Uncertain outlook on the export-import (EXIM) trade front, market share loss, lack of progress on divestment, and weak June quarter results weighed on the stock. Volume and margin movement will be key triggers for the stock going ahead. As was the case in the previous quarter, margin performance was muted even in the June quarter. Operating profit in the quarter was down 17 per cent at Rs 391 crore missing estimates by over 15 per cent. Operating profit margins at 20.4 per cent, too, were down sharply by 350 basis points over the year-ago quarter.
After underperforming its peers in the consumer space in 2022-23, and experiencing a mixed bag in the 2023-24 (FY24) April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1), brokerages are positive about the medium-term outlook for liquor stocks. Higher raw material costs, concerns regarding increased duties, regulatory changes, and competitive pressures weighed on performance returns in the past quarters. Analysts believe that the sector could experience a reversal of fortunes due to better demand and margin improvements.
With over 80 million Unified Payments Interface (UPI) users, Amazon Pay, the payments business of e-commerce giant Amazon, has been growing at 40-50 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), said Mahendra Nerurkar, chief executive officer (CEO) and vice-president (V-P), Amazon Pay India. "Leveraging just the micro peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions on UPI is not a business model. "While we have enabled those features, we do not chase monthly active users based on this.
The stock of consumer goods major Emami has corrected nearly 3.5 per cent since its 52-week high of Rs 546.25. On August 29, the stock closed at Rs 521.90 on the BSE. After underperforming the Nifty FMCG index for a long time, the stock is now doing a catch up and surged over 13 per cent in the past one month.
The Indian startup ecosystem has lauded the inclusion of startups in the New Delhi Leaders' Declaration for the first time ever in the history of G20. Industry stakeholders say that the move will lead to easier access to capital, reduce regulatory hurdles, and may revive funding activity. The Declaration, through the Startup20 initiative, recognised startups as "natural engines of growth" and key to socio-economic transformation by driving innovation and creating employment.
Rising crude oil prices and muted passenger traffic in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24) have raised concerns about the profitability of listed aviation players. These two concerns have caused the stock of InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo), the largest player in the sector, to slip by 11 per cent since its highs at the end of July. Nuvama Research expects yields to cool down in the near term due to seasonality, rising crude oil prices, and higher capacity.
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P&G Hygiene and Healthcare's June quarter numbers were better than Street estimates, led by strong sales and robust margins. The company, which owns leading consumer brands like Whisper, Vicks and Old Spice, posted a 12.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in sales at Rs 852.5 crore during the quarter. The double digit sales growth, led by expansion of its distribution reach, reverses a sluggish sales graph with three of the last four quarters reporting a fall in sales.
TVS Motor Company has been one of the best-performing two-wheeler stocks in the current financial year (FY24), enriching investors with gains of 24 per cent. Among listed two-wheeler stocks, only Hero MotoCorp has done better in this period. New launches, market share gains, steady margins and expectations that its performance will continue in FY24 are expected to support TVS Motor's stock.
After being underweight on domestic agrochemical companies and preferring global plays, brokerages believe that the former may perform better in the quarters ahead. Domestic crop protection companies have faced multiple headwinds over the past year and a half, given high inventory costs, pricing pressures, lower realisations in the generic segment, increased stocks due to lower infestations, and demand-led hits to volumes. Some of the overhang from previous quarters was reflected in the April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24) as well, with aggregate revenues and operating profit for the sector down 12 per cent and 27 per cent, respectively.
Since its results for the first quarter of the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24) earlier this month, the stock of auto component major Bharat Forge is up nearly 15 per cent and hit its all-time high in the process. The recent gains have extended the returns over the last three months to over 34 per cent. After a strong Q1 performance which beat expectations, brokerages had revised their earnings estimates upwards to factor in the improved outlook.
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